Ocelot Sports

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Turn a Deeper Blue

By Pauly

Los Angeles, CA

What a difference a week makes. Last Saturday, we began what would be known as The Streak. This week, we wobbled into this weekend on the tail end of a nasty losing streak in college football after whiffing 0-3 on Friday. I dragged everyone through the muck when I brought my personal life into the work place… and what followed was a series of bad decisions. I personally needed to step up and plug the life leaks, which meant not making as many mental errors. Those cost us big time on Friday.

College football: Miss St -1, Louisville -10.5, Memphis -3.5, Stanford -1.5, OVER 78 Baylor/Texas Tech and OVER 79.5

I tailed a wiseguy pick with Louisville and it shit the bed. That’s all I have to say about that. Usually when I tail them blind at the last second, I lose.That often happens when I lost all confidence in myself and have to rely on someone else’s wisdom. I know friends do the same with us, but we cannot stress enough… do your own research but don’t fall prey to “confirmation bias.”

Wisdom of the Ocelot

Never tail someone’s pick totally blind. You can use it as a starting point, but always do your own research.

With that said, we got a tip from @roll1967 about Memphis playing So. Miss. I checked with HAL420, who liked it too, so we pulled the trigger. That made up for the bad L’ville pick. And yes, L’ville fooked us twice this month.

In the Egg Bowl, Miss St took on Ole Miss. I must have been the only non-redneck watching that game. I drew suspicious looks from my girlfriend when I searched the farthest corner of the cable domain looking for the Egg Bowl. I found it… finally. I dunno why I stuck with Miss St after they screwed us over a couple of times in the last month. Maybe I wanted to give them one last chance to make it up. The biggest play of the game was early in the 2Q. Miss St had the ball in the Red Zone. 4th down and 2. They went for it instead of kicking a FG. If they get the first down and then score, it’s a totally different dynamic in the second  half. Alas, they took a shot and missed… and Ole Miss opened up a six-pack of whoop ass in the second half.

Stanford easily manhandled UCLA. The line shoulda been at least a TD. I was a little too suspicious about the line. Something similar happened last month when Stanford took on Cal, and I was wary that it was a trap game and I passed. Not this time. We jumped on it and our only regret is that we did not double down on it!

Our big bet was the Over in Baylor/Texas Tech. We were something like 5-0 betting on Baylor’s totals this year. It was the largest wager we made since Oregon. We even doubled down on Saturday morning even though we were getting a bad number, yet felt confident that the total would be mid-80s, so we had no qualms firing away. Those Big 12 teams can rack up points but can’t play a lick of defense. Maybe it was also because RG3 was roaming the sidelines for his alma mater? I probably woulda skipped the second pass at the OVER if we did not have such a dreadful Saturday (0-3). The first bet was to get unstuck from Saturday and the second bet was an attempt to get profit. We shipped the mönsterbetten which more than got us unstuck. We actually turned a profit despite finishing 3-2 on the day. Martingale is sitting at the end of some dive bar and would be proud of our exploits.

NBA Saturday: Utah -1.5, Bobkittens +3.5, OVER 188.5 Bobkittens/Wiz

If I was solely betting the NBA, I’d sit down and overhaul our system. Right now we’re all distracted with the home stretch of NFL games, meanwhile we’re still testing out HAL420 in the NBA realm, who has produced mediocre results. HAL420 was originally a college hoops bot that got tweaked for other sports. It’s still early in the season but the goal is to get rid of any bugs in our basketball system by early 2013. We’ll be done with football and can focus 100% on NBA and college hoops.

Anyway, our new operation Fade the Wiz was in full effect. They took on the upstart Bobkittens. I watched every Bobkittens game this year so I can tell you that they are deceptively good. They can’t finish off games. Last year they never got into a position to win but this year they are playing three great quarters of basketball, yet freeze up in crunch time. They’ve played inconsistent in 4Q all season. But… they were taking on the lowly Wiz. The winless Wiz. And they were getting +3.5.

Fade the Wiz. Even though Nene was back. He was on a Starsburg-like pitch count and the coaching staff relegated him to 20 minutes of playing time. They’re easing him back into the lineup. Until Nene and John Wall are both 100% you should considering fading the Wiz and jump on those overnight lines. The public has caught onto the fact that the Wiz are a shit-tacular team, so do what you can to stay a step ahead of the herd by betting that overnight line.

The Bobkittens needed OT to cover the OVER. 92-92 at the end of the 4Q. I prayed the Wiz would miss their last shot…. and they did. The game went into 2 OTs. we hit the OVER at the start of the first OT and the Bobkittens pulled away in the second OT. The Wiz remain winless. We hit two bets on that game.

Utah played at Sacramento, which was one of the worst teams in the league ATS. Except Utah forgot how to hit their free throws and trailed for most of the 4Q. Ugly night for the Jazz and we flushed that turd down the toilet. We finished up 2-1 in the NBA. Slight profit, but losing against Sacramento put me on tilt.

Overall… we got back on track after an abysmal Friday. It feels 10000% better when you follow up a terrible day with a profitable one. 3-2 and 2-1 wasn’t pretty, but we hit our mönsterbetten and heading into Sunday with much more confidence.

Filed under NBA college football Wiz Bobkittens