Ocelot Sports

5/20/13 NHL Playoffs

Mon, 20 May 2013 15:20:06 -0700

Picks by Buffalo66

NHL Playoffs:

Chicago -0.5 in regulation time (+132)

My wagers last night got flushed when the Penguins gave up a tying goal late in the 3rd.

Chicago is trending similar to their first series. They beat up on Minnesota then lost one game with a lackluster effort. The same thing just happened with Detroit.

I realize that the Wings are a better team than Minnesota (especially goal tending). But the Hawks bounced back after a loss last time and I expect they will do it again.

I’m Taking Chicago -0.5 in regulation time (+132).

5/20/13 MLB

Mon, 20 May 2013 15:18:58 -0700

Picks by Buffalo66

MLB:

Red Sox ML (-144)

Cardinals ML (-137)

I lost yesterday as Jake Peavy was out pitched by Vargas.

There’s several studs going tonight. The two I like best are obvious choices: Jon Lester and Shelby Miller. I’m still a little uncertain about the weather in the Sox match-up, but the skies should be perfect for the Cards in San Diego.

With Konerko and Dunn struggling Lester just needs to pitch around Rios. The Padres bats have been pretty hot but Miller has been lights out this year.

I’m taking Red Sox ML (-144) and Cardinals ML (-137).

NHL Playoffs 5/19/13

Sun, 19 May 2013 10:08:14 -0700

Picks by Buffalo66

NHL Playoffs:

Penguins -1.5 (puck line +245) and OVER 5.5 (+110)

Pittsburgh got me off my losing streak Friday so I’m going back for more.

The Penguins have been dominant in this series and I don’t believe home ice is going to help Ottawa much. The Sens bringing Jason Spezza back seems like a desperate move that might backfire, messing with the team chemistry.

I’m looking for Pittsburgh to win big and completely deflate the Senators.

I’m taking Penguins -1.5 (puck line +245) and OVER 5.5 (+110).

MLB 5/19/13

Sun, 19 May 2013 10:07:05 -0700

Picks by Buffalo66

MLB:

Chisox +112 ML

I lost yesterday when the O’s blew a 2 run lead in the 9th.

Today is an interesting match-up of two pitchers that struggle versus their opponent. Jake Peavy is 0-3, 6.08 against LA, while Jason Vargas is 0-1, 8.04 against the White Sox. Throwing out historical records, Peavy has been the much more dominant starter this season. His WHIP is a half point lower than Vargas.

I’m taking White Sox ML (+112).

5/18/13 MLB

Sat, 18 May 2013 12:57:14 -0700

Picks by Buffalo66

MLB:

Baltimore ML +102

I won last night as the Nats held on in extra innings.

Today I’m looking at a home dog. Roberto Hernandez has pitched terrible against Baltimore this season, going 0-2 with a 5.25 ERA. The O’s counter with Jair Jurrjens, who is somewhat of a mystery but is getting a spot in the rotation because of injuries.

The bats on both sides were hot last night, so I’ll choose the side with better odds.

I’m taking Orioles ML (+102).

Preakness Picks by Buffalo66

Sat, 18 May 2013 12:56:24 -0700

By Buffalo66

This Preakness has a small field this year with only nine runners. There’s also a heavy favorite in Derby winner Orb.

Orb got the first post position on the rail. Unfortunately, only once in the last 52 races has the winner come from that spot.

I like taking value for an upset on this race. Assuming the track is good/fast, there might be a challenger to Orb.

I’m taking #6 Oxbow to win. Also a superfecta box: 1-4-6-7-9.

5/17/13 NHL Playoffs

Fri, 17 May 2013 14:19:01 -0700

Picks by Buffalo66

NHL Playoffs:

Penguins -0.5 in regulation time (-117).

After a glorious sweat last night I lost as the Rangers could never pot a third goal.

Tonight it’s all about the Penguins. Crosby seems to be in game shape and Vokoun has answered the call to be a #1 goalie. I think Ottawa can steal a game or two in this series but it’s really just how long can they hold on.

I expect Pittsburgh to cover the puck line but just in case I’m hedging a bit.

I’m taking Penguins -0.5 in regulation time (-117).

5/17/13 MLB

Fri, 17 May 2013 14:17:36 -0700

Picks by Buffalo66

MLB:

Nationals (-133 ML)

I lost last night as Strasburg dealt through eight innings.

I’m going right back to the Nats/Padres series. Gio Gonzalez has a deceptively high ERA, mostly from one bad outing. He’s coming off two quality starts and Washington has Bryce Harper back in the lineup.

San Diego is throwing green rookie starter Burch Smith to the proverbial lions tonight.

I’m taking Nationals ML (-133).

5/16/13 NHL Playoffs

Thu, 16 May 2013 15:30:00 -0700

Picks by Buffalo66

NHL Playoffs:

NY Rangers OVER 2.5 goals (team total +121).

I lost last night when the Wings collapsed in the 3rd period.

I’m officially on a losing streak but I feel good about tonight’s pick. Boston has suddenly become the walking wounded, with 3 of the top 6 D-men out for tonight. Brad Marchand is also injured but expected to play.

I realize the Rangers had trouble scoring on the road versus Washington, but this is a different match-up. I expect a huge size advantage for the NYR forwards will generate scoring chances.

Also the Rangers put up 4 goals in 2 of the 3 regular season meetings.

I’m taking Rangers OVER 2.5 goals (team total +121).

5/16/13 MLB

Thu, 16 May 2013 15:28:52 -0700

Picks by Buffalo66

MLB:

S.D. Padres +128 ML

I cashed last night on the Sox as David Price struggled at home.

Tonight I like a home dog. Stephen Strasburg is in the longest winless streak of his career. And tonight he faces a San Diego team that has put up 11 runs in the first two games of the series. The new “smaller” Petco park has been good to the Padres offense.

SD is 13-6 in their last 19 overall.

I’m taking Padres ML. (+128).

5/15/13 NHL Playoffs

Wed, 15 May 2013 14:00:43 -0700

Picks by Buffalo66

NHL Playoffs:

Red Wings +1.5 (puck line -167)

I missed the over last night as Jon Quick shut out the Sharks.

There’s only one game tonight. The hot Red Wings face off against the Blackhawks. Jimmy Howard has been outstanding for Detroit. This is actually the first playoff game versus a starting goalie for Chicago.

Since 3 of the 4 regular season meeting were one goal games, I expect this to be another close one.

I’m taking Red Wings +1.5 (puck line -167).

5/15/13 MLB

Wed, 15 May 2013 13:59:26 -0700

Picks by Buffalo66

MLB:

Red Sox ML +113

I cashed last night as the Phillies took care of Scott Kazmir.

Tonight I really like the Red Sox/Rays match-up. Two of the premier pitchers in the AL square off: Jon Lester and David Price. While Price is coming off a quality start, he has struggled at home.

Lester just pitched a complete game one hitter and has already stifled TB once this season.

I’m taking Red Sox ML (+113).

5/14/13 MLB

Tue, 14 May 2013 15:31:15 -0700

Picks by Buffalo66

MLB:

Phillies ML (+109)

I lost last night as the Texas bats were quiet.

Tonight I’m fading another veteran pitcher. Scott Kazmir was once a top prospect but loss of velocity once sent him out of the league. Now he’s back as a finesse starter.

He has learned to pitch with junk velocity, but he is doomed to get torched every once in awhile. Pitching on the road in a hitters ballpark, I like the home dog today even without Chase Utley in the lineup.

I’m taking Phillies ML (+109).

5/14/13 NHL Playoffs

Tue, 14 May 2013 15:30:00 -0700

Picks by Buffalo66

NHL:

Sharks/Kings OVER 5 (+132).

I completely whiffed on the Salami under last night.

Tonight there will be two well rested team going in LA. The Sharks dominated the Canucks in four straight, while the Kings took 6 games to beat the Blues.

I expect to see continued scoring by the San Jose snipers. I also expect these teams to play several close games.

I’m taking Sharks/Kings OVER 5 (+132).

5/13/13 MLB

Mon, 13 May 2013 12:46:13 -0700

Picks by Buffalo66

MLB

Rangers ML +113

I took yesterday off to savor some playoff hockey.

Today I like the Rangers/A’s match-up. Texas has won 6 of 7 and has scored 31 runs in the last 5 games. Oakland is putting A.J. Griffin on the mound and he hasn’t been consistent this season. This game is a coin flip at best for the Athletics, so I’ll take the side with better odds.

I’m taking the Rangers ML (+113).

5/13/13 NHL Playoffs

Mon, 13 May 2013 12:44:50 -0700

Picks by Buffalo66

NHL:

Grand Salami - UNDER 9.5 (+120)

Took a day off yesterday as I didn’t see a strong play.

Tonight has two game 7 match-ups. Both teams have played hard but conservative, trying to avoid an on-ice mistake. Plus both games are on back-to-back nights.

Home teams are usually heavily favored in deciding games, so there’s not much value. However, I did find a good play in the totals. The “Grand Salami” bet in hockey is wagering on which side scores more goals (all home teams combined versus all away teams combined). You can also bet an over/under on the Grand Salami.

With two more defensive battles shaping up, I like the under. I’m taking home/away total goals UNDER 9.5 (+120).

5/12/13 NO Plays

Sun, 12 May 2013 13:11:36 -0700

No plays today.

Happy Mother’s Day! I hope you took some of your bankroll and bought your mother flowers or some other token of your appreciation.

5/11/13 NHL Playoffs

Sat, 11 May 2013 13:07:53 -0700

Picks by Buffalo66

NHL:

Penguins -1.5 puck line (+182)

I missed last night as the Caps never took the lead in regulation.

There’s only one game tonight and it should be a good one. Pittsburgh seems to have found their answer at goalie with Tomas Vokoun. Plus their skaters all seem to be finally healthy.

The Islanders are likely missing two key players in Nielsen and McDonald. While I expect the crowd to go nuts, I think NY has too much to overcome here.

I’m taking Penguins -1.5 (puck line +182)

5/11/13 MLB

Sat, 11 May 2013 13:06:33 -0700

Picks by Buffalo66

MLB:

OVER 7.5 Yanks/Royals (+115)

I cashed on both bets last night, NY and Seattle cruised.

Tonight I’m going back to the Yankees/KC matchup. Andy Pettitte has struggled lately and 4 of his 6 starts have gone over. James Shields has been better overall, but his career numbers against the Bombers are horrid.

The bats are hot, combining for 16 runs last night. Expect weary bullpens.

I’m taking Yankees/Royals OVER 7.5 (+115).

5/10/13 MLB

Fri, 10 May 2013 14:20:00 -0700

Picks by Buffalo66

MLB:

NY Yankees (+107)

Seattle (-123)

I cashed on my over bet in the Rays game.

Phil Hughes had a rough start to the season but he has put up four consecutive quality starts, including eight shutout innings last time out. He’s also 4-1 lifetime versus KC. Wade Davis has been very average to date and his WHIP is pretty high at 1.85.

Hisashi Iwakuma is the best pitcher in MLB you probably haven’t heard of. He has already beaten the A’s this season and the M’s are 5-0 in his last five home starts. The Oakland bats have struggled this month.

I’m taking Yankees ML (+107) and Seattle ML (-123).